Asking AI about democracy and the future (7/18): Gemini’s answer (3/7)

The Contested Horizon: Navigating Humanity's Near Future Amidst Geopolitical Shifts, Democratic Erosion, and Technological Transformation (3/7)

Table of subtitles

III. Global Conflicts and Geopolitical Instability (cont’d)

 

B. Underlying Drivers of Instability

 

Beyond the specific flashpoints, several pervasive factors contribute to the observed global instability. A significant element is the widespread political instability and the rise of populism.[4] Voters across the globe have frequently swept away incumbents, often without endorsing a clear alternative political direction, leading to a heightened risk of political drift. The entrenchment of extreme parties, particularly the radical right and populists in Europe, further exacerbates political uncertainty.[4] This is compounded by increased social mobilization, as seen in farmers' protests in Europe and India, driven by concerns over free trade agreements and perceived government inaction. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Hamas war, directly fuel social unrest and widespread public mobilization in numerous countries.[4]

 

A fierce geostrategic competition among major trading blocs—China, the USA, and Europe—is intensifying, with each asserting leadership through economic, technological, and military power.[4] This competition manifests in increased economic security measures, including trade barriers, tariffs, and export restrictions, which are actively reshaping global trade routes. Companies are increasingly compelled to adapt their operations based on their alignment with these competing spheres of influence.[3, 4]

 

Furthermore, religious persecution acts as a significant driver of conflict and instability. Reports indicate that 380 million Christians worldwide faced high levels of persecution and discrimination in 2024, largely driven by Islamic extremism, authoritarian regimes, and ongoing wars.[5, 6] In sub-Saharan countries, jihadist militants exploit unstable governance to seize control of territories.[5] Conflicts like the Sudanese civil war and the Yemen conflict disproportionately affect vulnerable religious communities.[5] The situation is further complicated by external meddling, where regional powers back opposing sides in conflicts, as exemplified by Emirati support for the RSF and Egyptian support for the Sudanese army, which entrenches regional divisions and undermines peace efforts.[2]

 

C. Strategic Implications for Global Security

 

The concurrent trends of deep economic and geopolitical interdependencies alongside increasing fragmentation suggest a complex global dynamic that can be characterized as "fractured interdependence." States and economies are increasingly reliant on each other for addressing shared global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and the stability of trade routes.[1] For example, the "Reluctant International Order" scenario posits that a near-miss bioweapon crisis could trigger unprecedented global cooperation, demonstrating the imperative for collective action in the face of existential threats.[1]

However, this interdependence coexists with active decoupling and aggressive competition in other critical domains, including technology, trade, and military spheres.[3, 4] This is not a simple reversal of globalization, but rather a complex re-ordering where new fault lines emerge. The implication is that traditional multilateral institutions, while still present [1], are under immense strain and may struggle to address global challenges effectively. Cooperation becomes highly selective and transactional, often driven by immediate crises rather than shared norms or long-term strategic alignment. This increases the risk of miscalculation and localized conflicts escalating due to a lack of trust and established diplomatic channels.

 

Moreover, the nature of global conflict is evolving, with a growing weaponization of non-traditional domains. Beyond conventional military engagements, economic security measures have become central instruments of state power, involving tariffs, export restrictions, and control over critical technologies.[3, 4] Digital platforms are also being actively leveraged for disinformation campaigns and influence operations, blurring the lines between information warfare and direct aggression.[7] This expansion of the "battleground" into economic, technological, and informational realms makes conflict more pervasive and harder to define. Companies and individuals often become unwitting participants or targets in these "digital cold wars".[7] This necessitates a fundamental re-evaluation of national security strategies to encompass these non-traditional threats and vulnerabilities, recognizing that the scope of conflict extends far beyond kinetic warfare.

 

Footnotes

1. https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/political-social-risk-what-you-need-to-watch-out-for-in-2025
2. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45344
3. https://www.thebanner.org/news/2025/01/report-1-in-7-global-christians-faces-high-level-persecution
4. https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2025
5. https://www.oecd.org/en/about/projects/future-of-education-and-skills-2030.html
6. https://futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/33-dramatic-predictions-for-2030/
7. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2024-0017/