Asking AI about democracy and the future (6/18): Gemini’s answer (2/7)

The Contested Horizon: Navigating Humanity's Near Future Amidst Geopolitical Shifts, Democratic Erosion, and Technological Transformation (2/7)

 

 Table of subtitles

 

III. Global Conflicts and Geopolitical Instability

 

A. Current and Emerging Conflict Hotspots (2025 Outlook)

 

The global security landscape for 2025 is marked by a series of entrenched and emerging conflicts, each with significant humanitarian and geopolitical implications.

 

Sudan, for instance, is experiencing what is described as the world's most devastating war, displacing over 12 million people—more than a third of its pre-war population—and leaving over a quarter facing acute food shortages, with parts of Darfur suffering famine conditions.[1] The conflict pits the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese army and an array of aligned militias, with neither side appearing likely to prevail.[1] This internal strife risks destabilizing neighboring countries, evidenced by the severe impact on South Sudan's oil revenues and the influx of nearly a million refugees into eastern Chad, straining intercommunal relations.[1] External involvement, with Emirati backing for the RSF and Egyptian support for the Sudanese army, has further fragmented the Horn of Africa into competing spheres of influence, hindering effective peace efforts.[1]

 

In Ukraine and European Security, Russian forces maintain an advantage, despite incurring immense costs in casualties and facing a struggling economy. Kyiv is outgunned and outnumbered, and the reliability of U.S. aid remains uncertain. While Ukrainian defenses are unlikely to collapse suddenly, the country faces a precarious situation.[1] Negotiations are exceptionally challenging; while Kyiv and its Western backers largely acknowledge Russia's retention of occupied territory, the fundamental disagreement lies in Russia's desire for a pliant Ukraine outside Western influence, a scenario Kyiv and European capitals view as an existential threat that could invite further Russian aggression.[1] The form of deterrence is also contested, with NATO membership for Ukraine unlikely in the near term. A strong Ukrainian army, bolstered by sustained European aid, presents an alternative, but requires long-term Western commitment. The unpredictability of a potential U.S. administration could lead to further Russian probes in the Baltic or Black Sea, risking a major regional crisis.[1]

 

The Israel-Palestine conflict continues to be a source of immense human suffering and geopolitical instability. Israel's assault on Gaza has resulted in over 45,000 Palestinian deaths, predominantly civilians, and widespread destruction of infrastructure.[1] Despite the decimation of Hamas's military assets, no clear authority capable of governing Gaza without Hamas's acquiescence has emerged. Israel appears poised to annex the West Bank, accelerating settler expansion and implementing repressive measures, which risks further eroding international norms and increasing civilian suffering.[1] A remote possibility for de-escalation hinges on Saudi Arabia potentially leveraging its influence with the U.S. to preserve a viable path to Palestinian statehood as part of broader regional accords.[1]

 

The dynamic between Iran vs. U.S. and Israel remains highly volatile. Iran's "Axis of Resistance"[3] has been significantly weakened by recent Israeli actions and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.[1] However, these losses have not altered Tehran's nuclear calculations, with its breakout time for fissile material virtually nil.[1] The risk of military action against Iran's nuclear sites or government is substantial, carrying the potential for widespread chaos. Diplomatic avenues, though fraught with difficulty, are considered a more prudent approach, focusing on defining limits on Iran's nuclear program, ensuring full access for inspectors, and eliminating enriched uranium stockpiles. A broader region-wide bargain, where Iran might make concessions on nuclear checks or support for militant groups in exchange for non-aggression pledges, is a challenging but potentially viable path.[1][4]

 

U.S.-Mexico relations face significant strain due to rampant criminal gang violence in Mexico, which has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and disappearances since 2006, largely fueled by drug production and transit, particularly fentanyl.[1] The prospect of a U.S. administration implementing policies such as high tariffs, mass deportations, or unilateral military action against cartels risks severe bilateral economic and social upheaval, potentially provoking Mexican retaliation against U.S. economic interests.[1]

 

In Myanmar, a protracted civil war has displaced over 3 million people, crippled health and education systems, and dramatically increased poverty.[1] While the military regime appeared vulnerable in mid-2024, China has provided crucial support, aiming to stabilize the country through elections in 2025. However, these polls are widely anticipated to be violent and result in a military-backed administration, further fueling unrest and deepening anti-China sentiment.[1]

 

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated dramatically, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un abandoning the policy of peaceful unification, declaring Seoul his primary adversary, and ratifying a mutual defense pact with Moscow.[1] North Korea has significantly built up and tested its missile arsenal, while both sides have intensified naval exercises. The deepening ties between Russia and North Korea link the peninsula's military balance to the war in Europe, with potential transfers of advanced military technology. China views Russia's growing influence over Kim with apprehension. The potential return of a U.S. administration could introduce further uncertainty, potentially demanding increased financial contributions from Seoul for defense, which could, in turn, bolster calls for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal. The primary danger in this region stems from miscalculation, particularly concerning Russian missile technology transfers or North Korean provocations.[1]

 

The China-U.S. rivalry remains deeply entrenched, despite a period of more stable relations since a November 2023 summit and the reopening of military-to-military channels.[1, 2] This competition is particularly acute in critical technologies, military capabilities, and trade.[2] The unpredictability of a U.S. administration's Asia policy, including potential high tariffs on Chinese goods, raises concerns about Taiwan's defense and U.S. commitments to its allies. Taiwan's new president has adopted a more adversarial stance, leading to increased Chinese military incursions and aggressive drills. The South China Sea remains a significant flashpoint, with escalating friction and naval clashes around disputed territories, potentially invoking U.S. defense pacts with allies like the Philippines and risking an escalatory spiral.[1, 2] Despite these tensions, areas of cooperation, such as climate change, public health, and narcotics control, are expected to persist, with diplomatic engagements continuing even during periods of turbulence.[2]

 

Footnotes

1. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45344

2.     https://www.thebanner.org/news/2025/01/report-1-in-7-global-christians-faces-high-level-persecution

3. The Axis of Resistance is an informal coalition of Iranian-supported militant and political organizations across the Middle East. Formed by Iran, it unites actors committed to countering the influence of the United States and Israel in the region. It most notably includes the Lebanese Hezbollah, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Yemeni Houthis. It sometimes includes Hamas, and a variety of other Palestinian militant groups. Google AI Overview, viewed on June 27, 2025.
4. [Blogger’s note] A month after I wrote this, the Israel-Iran war broke out.