Asking AI about democracy and the future (8/18): Gemini’s answer (4/7)

The Contested Horizon: Navigating Humanity's Near Future Amidst Geopolitical Shifts, Democratic Erosion, and Technological Transformation (4/7)


Table of subtitles

 

IV. The Shifting Landscape of Democracy

 

A. Trends in Democratic Decline and Stagnation

 

The global state of democracy in the near future is characterized by a persistent and concerning trend of decline and stagnation. The year 2024, despite roughly half the world's population having the opportunity to vote, yielded a "mixed bag" of results.[2] While some nations like South Africa and the United Kingdom saw voters successfully remove incumbents, autocrats in countries such as Russia and Venezuela skillfully manipulated elections to consolidate their power, effectively turning the ballot box into a tool of repression.[2] This marked the eighteenth consecutive year of democratic decline globally, a trend significantly influenced by flawed elections and ongoing armed conflicts.[2]

 

The quality and robustness of elections have notably diminished, with a dramatic 10-point fall in average voter turnout over the past 15 years, a trend observed to varying degrees across all regions.[3] A particularly troubling phenomenon is the increasing refusal of losing candidates or parties to concede election outcomes, which occurred in nearly 20% of elections between 2020 and 2024.[3] This trend is exacerbated by the spread of disinformation and heightened political polarization. When election results are vigorously and even vitriolically contested, it further erodes public trust in the validity and value of democratic elections.[3] The credibility of elections worsened in over one-fifth of the 173 countries surveyed in 2023 compared to 2018, with common issues including increased government intimidation, higher levels of electoral irregularities, and a decline in the autonomy and capacity of electoral management bodies.[3]

 

This democratic backsliding is not confined to authoritarian states; it affects both repressive contexts, where governments suppress dissent and limit citizens' ability to choose leaders, and long-established democracies, which have also experienced declines in democratic performance.[3] Since 2016, the number of states shifting towards authoritarianism has been approximately three times that of those moving towards democracy.[4] Authoritarian governments are increasingly employing sophisticated, less heavy-handed methods of repression. These include restricting freedom of movement as a form of retribution for political activism (e.g., travel bans, citizenship revocation) and manipulating online information spaces through censorship, distortion, and the spread of unreliable narratives.[2, 5] They are also adept at using advanced technological tools, such as AI-enhanced surveillance, facial recognition, and "big data" aggregation, to track citizens' online and offline activities, anticipating and repressing political dissent. These technologies are making non-democratic forms of governance more durable and cost-effective for regimes.[1, 5, 6]

 

Footnotes

  1. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2024-0017/
  2. https://freedomhouse.org/impact/2024
  3. https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/sites/default/files/2024-09/the-global-state-of-democracy-2024-strengthening-legitimacy-elections.pdf
  4. https://freedomhouse.org/policy-recommendations/strengthening-democracy-abroad
  5. https://un-futureslab.org/
  6. https://un-futureslab.org/project/futures-thinking-and-strategic-foresight-in-action-insights-from-the-global-south/

 



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Liberal becomes illiberal

Image
Liberal becomes illiberal¹ Is liberalism in the U.S. liberal or progressive?   The terms liberal and progressive often get used interchangeably in the U.S., but they actually refer to slightly different political traditions and attitudes — especially in how they relate to change, government, and social issues. So, the relationship between liberalism and progressivism in the U.S. can be complex, and it's important to understand that they are related but not entirely synonymous. Here's a breakdown:   Liberalism in the U.S. (Modern Liberalism) Created with ChatGPT In the U.S., liberalism typically refers to what's called modern liberalism — not classical liberalism (which is closer to libertarianism today). Modern liberals tend to support: A strong role for government in regulating the economy and providing social safety nets (e.g., Social Security , Medicare ). Civil rights and individual liberties, including support for marginalized groups. ...
Read more

How do democracies elect good leaders?

Image
  How do democracies elect good leaders? 1   Great follow-up question 2 . Electing the best leader in a democratic system is both an ideal and a challenge , and it depends on a mix of institutional strength and active citizenship. Here are the essentials that make it more likely:   1. Informed and Engaged Citizens Created with ChatGPT ·          Critical thinking : Voters who can analyze candidates' claims and spot manipulation. ·          Political education : Understanding how the system works, what leaders actually have power to do, and what good governance looks like. ·          Active participation : Not just voting, but engaging in debates, holding leaders accountable, and supporting civil society.   2. A Free and Independent Press ·          Unbiased journalism gives voters access ...
Read more

Asking AI about democracy and the future (1/18)

Image
  Asking AI about democracy and the future: My question   I, Introduction   The 18 blogs, including this one, were written based on conversations the blogger had with leading AIs. The topic of the conversation was democracy and the near future, and the same question was asked to five AIs. The purpose of this conversation was twofold. One was to find answers to the concerns and questions the blogger had for a long time, and the other was to experience and evaluate the level of recent AI, that is, the latest generative AI, from the perspective of a blogger studying AI. Of course, these two purposes conflict. This is because it is contradictory to treat AI as a conversation partner who can answer questions while simultaneously evaluating the level of that AI. If you know the answer to democracy and the future, you can evaluate the answer of AI, but if you do not know the answer, evaluating the answer of AI is like grading without the correct answer. However, su...
Read more