Asking AI about democracy and the future (5/18): Gemini’s answer (1/7)

The Contested Horizon: Navigating Humanity's Near Future Amidst Geopolitical Shifts, Democratic Erosion, and Technological Transformation (1/7)

 

Table of subtitles (*)

 

 

I. Executive Summary

 

The period spanning 2025 to 2040 is poised to be a pivotal era for humanity, marked by a complex interplay of escalating geopolitical conflicts, a persistent global democratic recession, profound societal transformation driven by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technologies, and a philosophical challenge to human dignity exacerbated by prevalent materialistic worldviews. These forces are not isolated phenomena; rather, they are deeply interconnected, creating a highly uncertain and increasingly contested strategic environment. Geopolitical tensions can exacerbate democratic backsliding, while technological advancements possess the dual capacity to both empower and undermine democratic processes. Materialistic perspectives, often amplified by digital platforms, can subtly reshape societal values and political behavior. The central challenge for global leadership and civil society lies in navigating these converging crises without succumbing to fragmentation, further erosion of human rights, or irreversible loss of autonomy. Strategic action is imperative to strengthen democratic resilience, foster ethical technological governance, mitigate conflicts, and reaffirm foundational human values, thereby shaping a more equitable, stable, and human-centered future.

 

II. Introduction: Defining the Near Future

 

This report examines the trajectory of humanity over the next 15 to 20 years, a timeframe chosen to align with strategic foresight assessments from leading organizations such as the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Atlantic Council, which typically project 10 to 20 years into the future.[1, 2, 3, 4] The NIC's "Global Trends 2040" report, for instance, explicitly aims to provide an analytical framework for policymakers to prepare for an array of possible futures by assessing key trends and uncertainties.[3] This period is characterized by accelerating change and heightened uncertainty, demanding a comprehensive, integrated approach to understanding global dynamics.

 

The global landscape is defined by the interconnectedness of four powerful drivers: conflicts, the state of democracy, the rapid evolution of technology (particularly AI), and prevailing societal values, including materialistic views. These elements do not operate in isolation; instead, they form a complex adaptive system[5] where each influences and is influenced by the others. For example, geopolitical tensions can directly contribute to democratic backsliding by creating instability and empowering authoritarian responses. Simultaneously, technological advancements, while offering tools for progress, can also be leveraged to control populations and undermine democratic institutions. Materialistic perspectives, often amplified through digital platforms, can subtly shift societal priorities, potentially de-emphasizing collective well-being and individual rights in favor of economic or technological efficiency. Understanding these intricate interdependencies is crucial for developing effective strategic responses and navigating the complexities of the near future.

 

Footnotes

  1. https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2025
  2. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/three-worlds-in-2035/
  3. https://freedomhouse.org/impact/2024
  1. https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/political-social-risk-what-you-need-to-watch-out-for-in-2025
  2. A Complex Adaptive System (CAS) is a system composed of many interacting agents that can adapt and learn from their environment, leading to emergent behaviors at the system level. These systems are characterized by nonlinearity, interdependence between agents, and the ability of the system to evolve and adapt over time. Examples include ant colonies, ecosystems, and even social systems like organizations. Google AI Overview, viewed on June 27, 2025.
  3. [Blogger's Note; (*)] There are two versions of Gemini's answer. One is the answer to my main question, and the other is the version that Gemini made in seven parts at my request to split the long answer into several blog posts. I think this second version may confuse readers because it has different subtitles from the first one. However, in order to reduce confusion while maintaining the principle of including Gemini's answer as much as possible, I made a table of the subtitles from both versions and included it at the beginning of each post.

 

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